Rethinking the Future: Why Scenario Planning Must Evolve in the Age of AI and Geopolitical Instability
“The future is not what it used to be.”
This quote, often attributed to Paul Valéry, has never felt more accurate than it does today. From AI acceleration to geopolitical flashpoints and unpredictable market shocks, traditional models of scenario planning - once the cornerstone of long-term corporate strategy - are being forced into urgent evolution.
Welcome to the era of micro-scenario planning: dynamic, assumption-stress-tested, and deeply responsive to real-time complexity.
Traditional scenario planning, built on three-to-five broad futures (best case, worst case, baseline), once served as a useful compass for strategic leaders. In today’s environment - marked by compounding disruptions - it feels increasingly blunt.
Consider these realities:
AI is advancing exponentially. A single release of a large language model can upend productivity norms, displace entire job functions, or unlock new industries overnight.
Geopolitical tensions are no longer isolated. Russia’s war in Ukraine, conflict in the Red Sea, and escalating tensions between China and Taiwan have disrupted supply chains, energy pricing, and shipping routes in ways that affect everyone - from FMCG to fintech.
Climate instability is not future tense - it’s now. Insurance providers are pulling out of high-risk zones. Food supply chains are shifting. Governments are altering policy in real time.
In this context, a once-a-year workshop creating three possible futures isn't just outdated - it’s dangerous.
Enter micro-scenario planning.
Rather than asking, “What if the economy improves or worsens over five years?,” companies are now asking:
What if one key assumption breaks?
What if a critical vendor is hit with sanctions?
What if an AI tool we rely on becomes regulated or banned in our region?
What if one major shipping route is shut down for 60 days?
These aren't hypothetical. They're headlines.
Take Danish shipping and logistics company, Maersk, as a real-world example. The Red Sea shipping crisis forced them to reroute vessels around Africa, adding 10-14 days and millions in fuel costs. Companies relying on just-in-time inventory from Asia faced immediate shortages. Those who had modelled even narrow disruptions in their logistics chains had buffers in place; those who hadn’t scrambled.
Another case: NVIDIA’s reliance on Taiwan’s chip manufacturing has prompted U.S. companies to build domestic redundancy. Those with scenario playbooks based on regional instability began diversifying earlier - saving time, money, and stress.
So how do we move forward?
Here are five principles for evolving your approach:
1. Assumption-Centric Planning
Don’t build scenarios from scratch. Start by mapping your most critical assumptions - supply chain stability, regulatory continuity, talent availability - and test each individually.
Ask: What would break if this assumption no longer held true?
2. Shorter Horizons, More Iteration
Move from annual scenario reviews to quarterly (or even monthly) revisions. The volatility of inputs - from AI releases to diplomatic fallouts - demands agility.
Micro-scenarios are more like weather forecasts than 10-year climate predictions.
3. Cross-Functional War Games
Bring together your tech, legal, operations, and communications teams for simulations. Test how your company would respond to a 30% data infrastructure failure or a sudden trade ban with a key country.
Think less like a planner and more like a military strategist.
4. Use Real-Time External Data
Integrate geopolitical risk data (e.g., from Stratfor or Eurasia Group), AI regulation trackers, and climate alerts. The best scenario planners today operate more like live analysts than static forecasters.
Your inputs must match the speed of your environment.
5. Build Cultural Readiness
All the planning in the world fails if teams freeze when the unexpected hits. Invest in leadership development, cross-functional trust, and flexible decision-making capacity.
A brittle culture is a risk scenario in itself.
The businesses best positioned for the next decade are not the ones with the most polished forecasts. They’re the ones that treat strategy as a living system - adaptive, decentralized, and informed by multiple lenses.
We are entering a business climate where uncertainty is the norm, not the exception. AI won't slow down. Neither will climate volatility or geopolitical realignment. But with smarter, faster, and more assumption-conscious scenario planning, leaders can move from reactive to resilient.
In times of turbulence, clarity is a competitive advantage.
Evolving your scenario planning approach isn’t about predicting the unpredictable. It’s about becoming the kind of organisation that can respond - quickly, coherently, and ahead of the curve.
In this world, it’s not the strongest who survive. It’s the most adaptable.